Sunday, January 31, 2010
Big Day for Bejarano; Bad Day for Me
Here's video of the Sunshine Millions Classic, which played out as expected, with the pace much too quick early and the closers coming fast. I caught the worst end of the deal as Wicked Style was traveling well, poised to get first jump on the leaders, but was cut off twice at the top of the stretch and then couldn't rally at the rail. My 30-1 BOMB Palladio, who was bet to a paltry 6-1, ran around the entire field and was beaten a half length by hack job Russell Baze on Bold Chieftan. That one saved all the ground and plowed through traffic, completely retarded ride and the guy gets lucky. Oh well.
Red Sun won easy.
Today I'm looking at a few spots.
In the second race, Good Measure is the 3/5 morning line after a nice debut and subsequent work heads up with BC Sprint winner Dancing in Silks. This one looks to have a big stakes future. Uncle Greg @ 10-1 is the interesting colt. He's shown nothing in two career starts, while breaking slow in both, but his workout pattern has improved over the last month. He reportedly was finishing well in his recent work with Chantal up. She'll be riding this afternoon. Exacta Material.
In race 6, Jimmy the Brick (12-1) retains Rosario, and goes long - a trip he loves. Cavanal (3-1) is a huge player at this level, and may offer some value. Exacta box here.
In the feature, Proviso (7/2) looks head and shoulders the best to me. A look at this ones stats show a 0 for 0 record at 7 furlongs, but a deeper look shows she's actually 3 for 3 at ABOUT 7 furlongs in France. In addition, she's run huge in both North American starts, most recently when running 4th in the BC Ladies Classic. That was a race when she tried to chase a runaway leader too early, was steadied, and still ran a huge race. Bejarano takes over today, for this mares first start under Mott (which actually is my only concern).
Good Luck.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Chantal Hits The Hole Hard, Solis Can't Find It.
Nice ride in yesterday's 3rd by Chantal, steering Egypt through the hole on the rail, while the favorite went wide. She won easily, and the Pick-6 was off to a nice start.
In the 5th, Sweet Hanni was never in doubt, with an excellent trip under Espinoza. Nice that the first horse I gave out here wins like that and pays $8.60.
In the 6th, Seedless was better than any horse from California @ 6-1, but the Calder import Folk Dancer got up to win at the wire, with Seedless right there in second. An important note here - horses from Calder run big in starter 40k races. Always. I fucked that up.
Horses who deserve another shot:
Initial Impression - This horse took some action in yesterday's second race, after finding no room in her debut down the hill. Two things happened yesterday that make Initial Impression worth another look; (1) The pace was too slow @ 23; 45 3/5. A look at the chart shows that nobody really moved up or went back. (2) Chicago Gal came out over the dirt and forced Initial Impression to take up completely and travel about 9 wide. Give this one another look in the same condition, maybe at a mile.
Jet Blue Girl - This one is more obvious, but might be worth watching as well. Solis gave this filly no chance to win. She was stuck inside, lacked a hole at the top of the stretch, and then eased out way too late. She's a talented grass filly, with form on paper that looks terrible, but she handled the third and second finishers here last out with ease, and would have won here had she found room. She would be a great bet in this same condition @ 3-1, and I think it could happen.
Today's Sunshine Half Millions Classic looks wide open, and a little speed heavy. The Usual QT figures to run his race, and he loves the distance, surface a maybe.
I'll be looking at two imports.
Palladio (30-1) ships in from Florida, after running last year at Woodbine. This horse was outrun at big odds in last years classic, but that was over the dirt at Gulfstream. Palladio went to the shelf after that and surfaced with a G3 win over Ready's Echo on the polytrack with a 99 Beyer (while 9 wide). If this race goes too fast early Mike Smith might be able to make that big run. Worth a small play @ 30-1.
Wicked Style (10-1) paired up 98 Beyers on synthetics in Kentucky while losing to Blame and eventual BC Dirt Mile winner Furthest Land. Hopefully, this one can rate a little bit and run back to the Kentucky efforts. Bejarano takes the call, and he's 1 for 1 with trainer George Arnold this year.
If all else fails:
Red Sun in the 9th @ 8/5. This one steps out from Cal-breds, but still looks the part versus a modest bunch here. Training well and keeps Bejarano.
Good Luck.
In the 5th, Sweet Hanni was never in doubt, with an excellent trip under Espinoza. Nice that the first horse I gave out here wins like that and pays $8.60.
In the 6th, Seedless was better than any horse from California @ 6-1, but the Calder import Folk Dancer got up to win at the wire, with Seedless right there in second. An important note here - horses from Calder run big in starter 40k races. Always. I fucked that up.
Horses who deserve another shot:
Initial Impression - This horse took some action in yesterday's second race, after finding no room in her debut down the hill. Two things happened yesterday that make Initial Impression worth another look; (1) The pace was too slow @ 23; 45 3/5. A look at the chart shows that nobody really moved up or went back. (2) Chicago Gal came out over the dirt and forced Initial Impression to take up completely and travel about 9 wide. Give this one another look in the same condition, maybe at a mile.
Jet Blue Girl - This one is more obvious, but might be worth watching as well. Solis gave this filly no chance to win. She was stuck inside, lacked a hole at the top of the stretch, and then eased out way too late. She's a talented grass filly, with form on paper that looks terrible, but she handled the third and second finishers here last out with ease, and would have won here had she found room. She would be a great bet in this same condition @ 3-1, and I think it could happen.
Today's Sunshine Half Millions Classic looks wide open, and a little speed heavy. The Usual QT figures to run his race, and he loves the distance, surface a maybe.
I'll be looking at two imports.
Palladio (30-1) ships in from Florida, after running last year at Woodbine. This horse was outrun at big odds in last years classic, but that was over the dirt at Gulfstream. Palladio went to the shelf after that and surfaced with a G3 win over Ready's Echo on the polytrack with a 99 Beyer (while 9 wide). If this race goes too fast early Mike Smith might be able to make that big run. Worth a small play @ 30-1.
Wicked Style (10-1) paired up 98 Beyers on synthetics in Kentucky while losing to Blame and eventual BC Dirt Mile winner Furthest Land. Hopefully, this one can rate a little bit and run back to the Kentucky efforts. Bejarano takes the call, and he's 1 for 1 with trainer George Arnold this year.
If all else fails:
Red Sun in the 9th @ 8/5. This one steps out from Cal-breds, but still looks the part versus a modest bunch here. Training well and keeps Bejarano.
Good Luck.
Friday, January 29, 2010
A couple of 10's
Looks like some good racing today, and like usual, I have an opinion.
In the 5th race, #10 Sweet Hanni looks nice @ 8-1. This Cerin trainee ran an alright third last out behind Cozi Rosie, who appears to have nice stakes future. The distance last time time may have proved too much, and now Espinoza, who is 2 for 3 when getting a leg up from Cerin this meet, takes over for the absent Rosario.
In the 6th, #10 Seedless (8-1) figures a big player at a price. This horse won at second asking with a bit of trouble over some decent horses while appearing a bit green. However, next out, Seedless broke well, but had her head almost ripped off as she was cut off and pulled up. She speed back up to the leader, but was understandably tired late. Expecting a much better effort today. Obviously, the favorites have good shot here, but #9 ScratchtheMoon could also suprise today. Exacta material.
In the last race the first time starters #3, #4, and #12 all have big chances. I'm leaning towards the 4, Circa'sgoldengear.
Good luck. And let me know who you're betting today.
In the 5th race, #10 Sweet Hanni looks nice @ 8-1. This Cerin trainee ran an alright third last out behind Cozi Rosie, who appears to have nice stakes future. The distance last time time may have proved too much, and now Espinoza, who is 2 for 3 when getting a leg up from Cerin this meet, takes over for the absent Rosario.
In the 6th, #10 Seedless (8-1) figures a big player at a price. This horse won at second asking with a bit of trouble over some decent horses while appearing a bit green. However, next out, Seedless broke well, but had her head almost ripped off as she was cut off and pulled up. She speed back up to the leader, but was understandably tired late. Expecting a much better effort today. Obviously, the favorites have good shot here, but #9 ScratchtheMoon could also suprise today. Exacta material.
In the last race the first time starters #3, #4, and #12 all have big chances. I'm leaning towards the 4, Circa'sgoldengear.
Good luck. And let me know who you're betting today.
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