Saturday, January 30, 2010

Chantal Hits The Hole Hard, Solis Can't Find It.

Nice ride in yesterday's 3rd by Chantal, steering Egypt through the hole on the rail, while the favorite went wide. She won easily, and the Pick-6 was off to a nice start.

In the 5th, Sweet Hanni was never in doubt, with an excellent trip under Espinoza. Nice that the first horse I gave out here wins like that and pays $8.60.

In the 6th, Seedless was better than any horse from California @ 6-1, but the Calder import Folk Dancer got up to win at the wire, with Seedless right there in second. An important note here - horses from Calder run big in starter 40k races. Always. I fucked that up.

Horses who deserve another shot:

Initial Impression - This horse took some action in yesterday's second race, after finding no room in her debut down the hill. Two things happened yesterday that make Initial Impression worth another look; (1) The pace was too slow @ 23; 45 3/5. A look at the chart shows that nobody really moved up or went back. (2) Chicago Gal came out over the dirt and forced Initial Impression to take up completely and travel about 9 wide. Give this one another look in the same condition, maybe at a mile.

Jet Blue Girl - This one is more obvious, but might be worth watching as well. Solis gave this filly no chance to win. She was stuck inside, lacked a hole at the top of the stretch, and then eased out way too late. She's a talented grass filly, with form on paper that looks terrible, but she handled the third and second finishers here last out with ease, and would have won here had she found room. She would be a great bet in this same condition @ 3-1, and I think it could happen.

Today's Sunshine Half Millions Classic looks wide open, and a little speed heavy. The Usual QT figures to run his race, and he loves the distance, surface a maybe.

I'll be looking at two imports.

Palladio (30-1) ships in from Florida, after running last year at Woodbine. This horse was outrun at big odds in last years classic, but that was over the dirt at Gulfstream. Palladio went to the shelf after that and surfaced with a G3 win over Ready's Echo on the polytrack with a 99 Beyer (while 9 wide). If this race goes too fast early Mike Smith might be able to make that big run. Worth a small play @ 30-1.

Wicked Style (10-1) paired up 98 Beyers on synthetics in Kentucky while losing to Blame and eventual BC Dirt Mile winner Furthest Land. Hopefully, this one can rate a little bit and run back to the Kentucky efforts. Bejarano takes the call, and he's 1 for 1 with trainer George Arnold this year.


If all else fails:

Red Sun in the 9th @ 8/5. This one steps out from Cal-breds, but still looks the part versus a modest bunch here. Training well and keeps Bejarano.

Good Luck.

2 comments:

  1. this guy knows his ponies, get on board and make some bank..

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  2. One for three first time out, with two other choices on the wire, big run by Palladio, bet down a tweak bit... Red Sun bailed me with a dump... No jumping off of bridges today... Good Job, I love this info..

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